Friday, July 8, 2011
"Is it the economy, stupid"... for Obama as well?
"It's the economy, stupid." Who can forget this unforgettable line uttered by Clinton aide James Carville during the 1992 presidential campaign? President George H.W. Bush looked as though he was well on his way to reelection in '92. The President's prospects in 1992 looked good due in large part to major foreign policy victories including overseeing the end of the Cold War and Operation Desert Storm. Despite these accomplishments abroad, Americans were hurting at home. The economy was experiencing a recession and unemployment numbers were on the rise. In the end, it was the economy that did President Bush in. With the release of the latest unemployment numbers, many are beginning to wonder if President Obama will suffer the same fate as America's forty-first president. Unemployment currently stands at 9.2% in the United States. When President Obama took office in 2009, the unemployment rate was approximately 7.8%. It is no secret that the stimulus package that the President supported has not created the jobs he and his administration had hoped for. With time running out, the President will have to make great strides in the area of job creation to have a legitimate shot at winning in 2012. It is not unheard of for a president to win reelection with poor employment numbers. Ronald Reagan was reelected in 1984 with an unemployment rate right around 7.2%. As the old saying goes, all politics is local. I'm sure those critical of the President will be more than happy to remind him of this as the campaign season gets underway. Who knows, President Obama may even be greeted at certain campaign appearances with those now famous words, "It's the economy, stupid."
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Actually, with a Republican House (though not as well organized as in 1994) and a party split three ways (Libertarian/Tea Party/Big Govt Bushies), I predict re-election a la Clinton. For everything against him, there's still no one to beat him.
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